AI Boom Pushes Commerce Media Past TV in Ad Spend Forecast

A new forecast from WPP Media projects global ad spend will jump 8.8% in 2025, a significant upgrade fueled by the AI boom. As first reported by The Wall Street Journal, the report also marks a major milestone, with commerce media ad spend set to overtake television for the first time.

• A new king is crowned: For the first time, global ad spend on commerce media is projected to hit $178 billion next year, edging past the $171 billion forecasted for television. The move highlights digital's dominance, which now commands 84% of the entire ad market.

• Search holds the line: Despite the hype around AI answer engines, traditional search isn't dead. WPP expects search ad revenue to grow more than 10% to nearly $245 billion in 2025, with a separate forecast from analyst firm Madison & Wall concluding that legacy platforms remain "largely insulated from AI-related disruption." WPP’s report went as far as to call ad revenue from current native search challengers "insignificant."

• Enter the black box: The industry is bracing for a machine-learning-powered future, with Madison & Wall’s report highlighting a market consolidating around automated tools. The firm points to platforms like Meta's Advantage+ and Google's Performance Max, which it describes as a "black box" for advertisers. To help clients navigate this new terrain, WPP is set to release a new framework at CES in January that scores companies on their automation and data capabilities.

The AI-fueled surge may cool, as WPP’s forecast calls for growth to slow to around 7% in 2026, citing a potential hangover from tariff-related price hikes and the impact of new social media regulations.