Streaming platforms face challenges in monetizing views despite technological advancements.
Netflix projects $8 billion in free cash flow, while Disney reports over $10 billion in streaming losses.
The streaming wars label is only semantics, says analyst Dan Rayburn, and the real headline is tech-driven competition in pursuit of sustainable lasting business models.
The tech works. The money is another matter. Streaming has scaled—and in many ways, it delivers. But for many platforms, turning views into profit remains an open question as business models shift and the economics grow more complex.
Dan Rayburn, Streaming Analyst, has spent decades tracking how media platforms evolve and where they fall short. In this conversation, he breaks down why the business model—not the technology—is what’s holding streaming back.
The monetization gap: Some platforms have figured out how to scale and profit. Others haven’t. Netflix is projecting $8 billion in free cash flow this year. Disney, by contrast, lost $10+ billion in the first few years of its direct-to-consumer push.
But even numbers don’t tell the full story. “We don’t know the methodology they use to determine success,” says Rayburn. Apple may be losing a billion dollars on streaming, but they’re not guessing. “There’s a reason they’re doing it, they see something that’s positive.”
Models on models: “Consumers love choice. But with choice also comes complexity,” says Rayburn. FAST, AVOD, SVOD—platforms keep multiplying models, reshuffling content, and nudging prices up. Viewers are left guessing what’s included, what it costs, and how long it’ll last.
Confused users churn faster, and high-tier plans get ignored. “Everyone talked about 4K like it was the future,” Rayburn says. “But consumers are voting with their wallets.” In market after market, Netflix’s cheapest ad-supported tier outperforms the $25 ultra-HD plan.
Streaming works, and the biggest platforms have scaled it successfully. But as fragmentation grows and price sensitivity deepens, the pressure is on to make the business model work.
Tweak to peak: The tech dates back 30 years, and today the infrastructure is solid. The video plays. The platform works. “It’s no longer about the underlying technology,” says Rayburn. “It’s about fine tweaking. How do we make your experience better? How do we do better personalization for you?”
Business models vary—some rely on licensing, some on flat fees, others on ads or subscriptions—but the pipes are the same. “What we’re talking about today is how to utilize the technology for the business model you’re trying to solve,” he explains. The work now is less about invention and more about alignment: matching a mature tech stack to a model that can actually sustain it.
Competition, not combat: “There are no streaming wars,” Rayburn says. “It’s not a war. What we have is great competition in the market.” It’s not just semantics. Framing the industry as a battle distracts from what’s really happening: a push toward smarter, more sustainable business models in a market built on stable, mature technology.
In the early 2000s, fierce rivalry between Microsoft, RealNetworks, and others sparked rapid innovation. New platforms launched and new features rolled out every few months. Today, the infrastructure’s set. The fight now is over personalization, efficiency, and profit.
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