Macro unknowns hurt TV upfronts, driving budgets deeper into programmatic

The prospect of rising inflation and tariffs as a moving-target is injecting fresh uncertainty into the TV advertising upfront market. Industry players are taking a wait-and-see approach to assess regulatory shifts—such as potential legal curbs on pharmaceutical advertising, which would further compound financial pressures. Meanwhile, the automotive sector stands out as particularly vulnerable, as volatility in production costs often translates into tighter marketing budgets.

Automakers brace for tariffs: A 25% tariff on imported cars and parts is set to take effect on April 2, potentially increasing vehicle prices by 10% to 15%. Faced with substantial cost hikes, automakers may reduce TV ad spending to preserve margins and offset manufacturing and supply chain expenditures. Cutbacks, if widespread, could dampen the upfront season and cause networks to reassess pricing strategies and inventory allocations throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Ad spend forecast declines: National TV ad spend fell by 5% to $1.4 billion in 2024, according to iSpot.tv research. In response, advertisers are eyeing programmatic buying as a means to safeguard ROI–in search of real-time performance metrics and flexible budget allocation. With weaker upfront commitments possibly leading to higher available inventory, lower CPMs may emerge as a temporary advantage for brands still investing in traditional TV.

Major events on the horizon: Looking further ahead, major athletic events such as the 2026 Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup may help reinvigorate linear viewing. Political advertising should also spike for the 2026 midterm elections. So while concerns over tariffs and regulatory disruption remain front of mind today, large-scale events could serve as a counterbalance for the ecosystem in the longer term.